Trends and multi‐annual variability of water temperatures in the river Danube,Serbia          下载免费PDF全文

Biljana Basarin  Tin Lukić  Dragoslav Pavić  Robert L. Wilby 《水文研究》2016,30(18):3315-3329

The relationship between air (Ta) and water temperature (Tw) is very important because it shows how the temperature of a water body might respond to future changes in surface Ta. Mean monthly Tw records of three gauging stations (Bezdan, Bogojevo i Veliko Gradi?te) were analysed alongside mean monthly discharge (Q) for the same stations. Additionally, Ta series from two meteorological stations (Sombor and Veliko Gradi?te) were correlated with Tw variations over the period 1950–2012. Locally weighted scatter point smoothing (LOWESS) was used to investigate long‐term trends in the raw data, alongside the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test. Trend significance was established using Yue–Pilon's pre‐whitening approaches to determine trends in climate data. Also, the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used to detect dates of possible changes in the time series. Statistically significant warming trends were observed for annual and seasonal minimum and maximum Tw at all investigated sites. The strongest warming was observed at Bogojevo gauging station for seasonal maximum Tw, with +0.05 °C per year on average. RAPS established that the trend began in the 1980s. This behaviour is linked to climate patterns in the North and East Atlantic which determine the amount of heat advected onto mainland Europe. Statistically significant correlations were found for all Tw on an annual basis. Overall, the strongest correlations (p < 0.01) between Tw residuals and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were recorded for the winter period. These findings suggest possible predictability of Tw over seasonal time‐scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Prediction of river water temperature: a comparison between a new family of hybrid models and statistical approaches          下载免费PDF全文

Sebastiano Piccolroaz  Elisa Calamita  Bruno Majone  Aurélien Gallice  Annunziato Siviglia  Marco Toffolon 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3901-3917

River water temperature is a key physical variable controlling several chemical, biological and ecological processes. Its reliable prediction is a main issue in many environmental applications, which however is hampered by data scarcity, when using data‐demanding deterministic models, and modelling limitations, when using simpler statistical models. In this work we test a suite of models belonging to air2stream family, which are characterized by a hybrid formulation that combines a physical derivation of the key equation with a stochastic calibration of parameters. The air2stream models rely solely on air temperature and streamflow, and are of similar complexity as standard statistical models. The performances of the different versions of air2stream in predicting river water temperature are compared with those of the most common statistical models typically used in the literature. To this aim, a dataset of 38 Swiss rivers is used, which includes rivers classified into four different categories according to their hydrological characteristics: low‐land natural rivers, lake outlets, snow‐fed rivers and regulated rivers. The results of the analysis provide practical indications regarding the type of model that is most suitable to simulate river water temperature across different time scales (from daily to seasonal) and for different hydrological regimes. A model intercomparison exercise suggests that the family of air2stream hybrid models generally outperforms statistical models, while cross‐validation conducted over a 30‐year period indicates that they can be suitably adopted for long‐term analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

土−水特征曲线测量过程中孔隙分布的演化规律探讨     

牛庚  邵龙潭  孙德安  韦昌富  郭晓霞  徐华 《岩土力学》2020,41(4):1195-1202

测量了在宽广吸力范围内原状样和压实样的脱湿持水曲线，对比分析了单双峰结构持水性能的差异；并利用压汞试验测试两种土样在脱湿过程的孔隙分布，分析了两者的差异并探讨了脱湿过程孔隙的演化规律；在考虑收缩变形的基础上，基于孔隙分布曲线确定了土?水特征曲线的基本参数。试验结果表明：原状样在宽广吸力范围内基本上呈单峰孔隙结构；饱和压实样具有单峰孔隙结构，随着吸力的增加，双峰结构越来越明显，当吸力达到很大时，演化成完全双峰孔隙结构。原状样的持水曲线为经典的S形，而压实样的持水曲线在过渡段出现了水平台阶状；低吸力段，压实样的持水曲线低于原状样，而高吸力段，两者的持水曲线基本重合。基于孔隙分布曲线确定了控制持水曲线进气值和残余值的孔径，并计算出对应的吸力值，其值更符合实际物理意义。  相似文献   

大气污染物排放量与颗粒物环境空气质量的空间非协同耦合研究——以武汉市为例     

张金亭  赵玉丹  田扬戈  何青青  庄艳华  彭韵羲  洪松 《地理科学进展》2019,38(4):612-624

针对区域大气污染物排放量与空气质量在时空分布上存在不完全协同、匹配的现象,论文选择SO₂、NO_X、PM_2.5、CO和VOCs作为大气污染物指标,选择气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth, AOD)表征颗粒物环境空气质量,以武汉市为例,综合应用耦合模型和空间错位指数模型研究2类指标之间的空间非协同耦合规律。主要结论如下：① 武汉市大气污染物排放量与颗粒物空气质量具有不同空间分布特征,大气污染物排放量呈现由城市中心城区向远城区递减的趋势,其中SO₂、PM_2.5和VOCs的排放具有明显的中心聚集现象,而NO_X和CO聚集现象不显著,且与道路分布明显相关;AOD分布具有明显的空间差异性,总体上呈由西北向东南依次递减的趋势。② 武汉市大气污染物排放与颗粒物空气质量的空间非协同耦合规律：越靠近城市中心城区,空间协同耦合现象越显著,空间错位现象越弱;越远离主城区,空间非协同耦合现象越显著,空间错位现象越显著;SO₂排放量与AOD在武汉市远城区的空间错位指数均大于0.7,且耦合度指数小于0.3,呈现较强的非协同耦合特征,NO_X、VOCs、PM_2.5的排放量与AOD在武汉中心城区的空间错位指数均小于0.5,且耦合度指数大于0.5,协同耦合现象较为显著。③ 基于时空非协同耦合分析城市大气环境污染治理建议：针对污染物与AOD空间错位不显著的城市中心城区,以本地减排治理为主;针对污染物与AOD空间错位显著的远城区,应在污染溯源分析的基础上进行区域协调综合治理。  相似文献   

1977 - 2017年雅江流域中下游大气/地面冻融指数时空变化特征     

刘磊  罗栋梁 《冰川冻土》2020,42(3):812-822

冻结指数是某个地区冻结期长短和严寒程度的综合表征， 融化指数是某个地区融化期长短及正积温高低的综合度量， 冻融指数也是计算活动层厚度和季节冻结深度的关键参数， 并可用于多年冻土分布预报。利用雅鲁藏布江（雅江）流域中下游11个气象站点的逐日气温、 地面温度数据计算了1977 - 2017年大气及地面冻融指数， 并分析其时空变化趋势。结果表明： 雅江流域中下游近40年来冻结指数呈显著下降趋势， 大气冻结指数、 地面冻结指数、 大气融化指数、 地面融化指数多年变化范围分别为208.4 ~ 508.0、 136.9 ~ 371.0、 2 171.8 ~ 2 499.8、 3 350.2 ~ 4 315.2 ℃·d； 其气候倾斜率分别为-36.6、 -48.7、 90.7、 115.8 ℃·d·（10a）^-1。雅江流域大气和地面冻结指数以海拔4 488.8 m的嘉黎最大， 海拔2 991.9 m的林芝最小； 大气和地面融化指数则以海拔3 560 m的泽当最大， 海拔4 488.8 m的嘉黎最小。流域内大气负温日数变化规律与地面负温日数变化趋势基本一致， 其气候倾向率分别是-6.28 d·（10a）^-1和-5.57 d·（10a）^-1。研究结果可为雅江流域冻土预报， 冻融作用所形成的冰缘地貌研究及其引发的地质灾害如冻融滑塌、 冻融泥流等灾害的监测与预防提供借鉴。  相似文献   

Three dimensional numerical simulation of residential building on shrink–swell soils in response to climatic conditions          下载免费PDF全文

Xiong Zhang  Jean‐Louis Briaud 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2015,39(13):1369-1409

Shrink–swell soils can cause distresses in buildings, and every year, the economic loss associated with this problem is huge. This paper presents a comprehensive system for simulating the soil–foundation–building system and its response to daily weather conditions. Weather data include rainfall, solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, all of which are readily available from a local weather station or the Internet. These data are used to determine simulation flux boundary conditions. Different methods are proposed to simulate different boundary conditions: bare soil, trees, and vegetation. A coupled hydro‐mechanical stress analysis is used to simulate the volume change of shrink–swell soils due to both mechanical stress and water content variations. Coupled hydro‐mechanical stress‐jointed elements are used to simulate the interaction between the soil and the slab, and general shell elements are used to simulate structural behavior. All the models are combined into one finite element program to predict the entire system's behavior. This paper first described the theory for the simulations. A site in Arlington, Texas, is then selected to demonstrate the application of the proposed system. Simulation results are shown, and a comparison between measured and predicted movements for four footings in Arlington, Texas, over a 2‐year period is presented. Finally, a three‐dimensional simulation is made for a virtual residential building on shrink–swell soils to identify the influence of various factors. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimation of daily stream water temperatures with a Bayesian regression approach          下载免费PDF全文

Mohammad M. Sohrabi  Rohan Benjankar  Daniele Tonina  Seth J. Wenger  Daniel J. Isaak 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1719-1733

Stream water temperature plays a significant role in aquatic ecosystems where it controls many important biological and physical processes. Reliable estimates of water temperature at the daily time step are critical in managing water resources. We developed a parsimonious piecewise Bayesian model for estimating daily stream water temperatures that account for temporal autocorrelation and both linear and nonlinear relationships with air temperature and discharge. The model was tested at 8 climatically different basins of the USA and at 34 sites within the mountainous Boise River Basin (Idaho, USA). The results show that the proposed model is robust with an average root mean square error of 1.25 °C and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.92 over a 2‐year period. Our approach can be used to predict historic daily stream water temperatures in any location using observed daily stream temperature and regional air temperature data.  相似文献   

A pair production telescope for medium-energy gamma-ray polarimetry     

《Astroparticle Physics》2014

We describe the science motivation and development of a pair production telescope for medium-energy (∼5–200 MeV) gamma-ray polarimetry. Our instrument concept, the Advanced Energetic Pair Telescope (AdEPT), takes advantage of the Three-Dimensional Track Imager, a low-density gaseous time projection chamber, to achieve angular resolution within a factor of two of the pair production kinematics limit (∼0.6° at 70 MeV), continuum sensitivity comparable with the Fermi-LAT front detector (<3 × 10⁻⁶ MeV cm⁻² s⁻¹ at 70 MeV), and minimum detectable polarization less than 10% for a 10 mCrab source in 10⁶ s.  相似文献   

The shape of the radio wavefront of extensive air showers as measured with LOFAR     

《Astroparticle Physics》2015

Extensive air showers, induced by high energy cosmic rays impinging on the Earth’s atmosphere, produce radio emission that is measured with the LOFAR radio telescope. As the emission comes from a finite distance of a few kilometers, the incident wavefront is non-planar. A spherical, conical or hyperbolic shape of the wavefront has been proposed, but measurements of individual air showers have been inconclusive so far. For a selected high-quality sample of 161 measured extensive air showers, we have reconstructed the wavefront by measuring pulse arrival times to sub-nanosecond precision in 200 to 350 individual antennas. For each measured air shower, we have fitted a conical, spherical, and hyperboloid shape to the arrival times. The fit quality and a likelihood analysis show that a hyperboloid is the best parameterization. Using a non-planar wavefront shape gives an improved angular resolution, when reconstructing the shower arrival direction. Furthermore, a dependence of the wavefront shape on the shower geometry can be seen. This suggests that it will be possible to use a wavefront shape analysis to get an additional handle on the atmospheric depth of the shower maximum, which is sensitive to the mass of the primary particle.  相似文献   

Study of dispersion of mass distribution of ultra-high energy cosmic rays using a surface array of muon and electromagnetic detectors     

《Astroparticle Physics》2015

We consider a hypothetical observatory of ultra-high energy cosmic rays consisting of two surface detector arrays that measure independently electromagnetic and muon signals induced by air showers. Using the constant intensity cut method, sets of events ordered according to each of both signal sizes are compared giving the number of matched events. Based on its dependence on the zenith angle, a parameter sensitive to the dispersion of the distribution of the logarithmic mass of cosmic rays is introduced. The results obtained using two post-LHC models of hadronic interactions are very similar and indicate a weak dependence on details of these interactions.  相似文献